Re: The Aetherialists - Discussion Thread

[HailMarek]

Also, if the above is true then here are the recruitments we have accounted for:

N0:
Hades: Witch, Vili, MS
Lirua: Nobody, Gary,Fred, ???
Marek: Bananas? (could maybe also be N2), ???, ???

N1:
Hades: Sculptor
Lirua: Frenzy
Marek: MS

N2:
Hades: ???
Lirua: Sculptor
Marek: Bananas? (could definitely also be N0)

So assuming Bananas was recruited to Marek N0, we have 3 unknown N0 recruitments distributed among: Servitor, Hazared, Rhapsody, Candi, Terra, & Sculptor (if we're assuming their claims are truthful then this last one seems least likely but not impossible). This means that 50% of that list should've been Uninitiated going into D1.

All N1 recruitments are accounted for, meaning nobody hit a Grand Envoy unless someone is lying. This also means that outside of Sculptor, anyone from the previous group who started D1 Uninitiated stayed that way for D2. Assuming Sculptor was in fact Uninitiated D1, then two among Servitor, Hazared, Rhapsody, Candi, & Terra should have been Uninitiated for the first two days.

Meanwhile, we have 2 unknown N2 recruitments, which we have very little info on except that they didn't hit the two of us or Sculptor. Or maybe Marek's did hit Sculptor but the tie resolved in Lirua's favor, still don't know how that'd work.

Anyway, none of this is really actionable yet but wanna get the analysis out there so we can see how new pieces of info slot into the puzzle.

[HailMarek]

(and of course there is always, always, always the caveat that someone could be lying)

[Frenzy]

I put a lot less faith in YP's claim of MS than I do Sculptors, because I think a thread claim has more motive to lie.

Also everybody in Lirua who spoke yesterday checked in today. I think GF might have slipped up and given away envoy status, because when all four checked in he said "that brings us to a cool five", which would not be an assumption safely made unless he knew who the third N1 member is and that they weren't recruited, which he would be unable to confirm unless he had another chat with them.

So assuming Bananas was recruited to Marek N0, we have 3 unknown N0 recruitments distributed among: Servitor, Hazared, Rhapsody, Candi, Terra, & Sculptor (if we're assuming their claims are truthful then this last one seems least likely but not impossible)

Don't forget that N0 gets two recruits, the follower and the lesser envoy. It's possible Nic was N0 follower and Sculptor was the LEnvoy.

[HailMarek]

Don't forget that N0 gets two recruits, the follower and the lesser envoy. It's possible Nic was N0 follower and Sculptor was the LEnvoy.

Yeah that's possible it's just a more niche scenario than for the others, hence why I have Sculptor on the list but noted as less likely if claims are true.

& re: trusting claims, YP has arguably more incentive to lie but OTOH Sculptor is speaking to a much more limited audience and so can more easily construct a lie that nobody will spot. & ofc their claims don't even conflict so both or neither could be true.

[HailMarek]

Oh, and yeah, that certainly implies strongly that GF+unknown are the Envoys for Lirua leaving Nobody as the first Follower. Though outside chance GF is the first Follower and is deliberately giving cover to the Envoys in the interests of helping out their current Cult.

[HailMarek]

Also: how hard are you comfortable with me pushing back on the EoD thing? Keeping it up at least a bit longer feels more true to how I've been playing this game but I don't want to complicate your defense too much if you're feeling precarious. So far looks like mostly just Ori out for your blood so hopefully fine?

[Frenzy]

Feel free to push it a little more, but not super far? Defending further against something that I've already laid out my reasons for is a bit of a weakness of mine, unless the attacking argument has flaws I can dig into.

[HailMarek]

'kay, sticking on it for the moment then. Also hoping that if you do die later I can leverage this to maybe get meso hit over connectives. Tell me if you need me to back off.

[Frenzy]

That's about all I got. Now would be a good point to ease off.

[Frenzy]

Ori is on some hot bullshit and it's getting me real tilted.

[HailMarek]

Understood but do please try & keep a cool head if you can. I don't think we want to get in a big brawl with Ori here, especially as I certainly can't justify taking your side right now even if I can back off on my immediate push.

[HailMarek]

I can try & give you an out to explain yourself in a hopefully-more-persuasive way, but it'll have to look at least somewhat like an attack. Do you want me to go for it or stay out of the whole situation for now?

Text of planned post:

Also, regarding the whole "Ori's case on YP" issue, here's the post in question:

Fixing my vote, I'm pretty much in this for the long haul now because I have 0 desire to have a claim of any kind forced out of me D1, and going 'I'm in your faction' either makes him


A) A liability to me if I was in the same faction.

B) Uninitiated in which case I don't care because we are definitionally not in the same faction.

C) One or both of us are culted and in seperate cults, in which case I am just advancing my Wincon


Further even if we are both Uninitiated that doesn't mean we are aligned, as far as I care we are independent survivors not teammates.


[x] Vote Young Pyromancer

(B) and (C) obviously apply equally to any given player. (A) is I think the sticking point - if YP and Ori are actually on the same team, then YP is being a liability by saying so in-thread, but that isn't a liability to anybody not on that team. So that section...doesn't really seem like it should apply in the general case, at which point the trichotomy breaks down.

So yeah, not an amazing look for LDJ here.

I think that should give you a good line to defend yourself on this issue, but I can also leave you to your own devices if you think that'd be safer in terms of connectives and/or general approach.

[HailMarek]

Okay, never mind, cool, looks like you've got that handled yourself. Carry on then.

[HailMarek]

"I think I would have killed Nictis today if I were the Aetherialists. It eliminates a seasoned player and sets up an obvious target to take the fall. Not saying it couldn't be wine, but I don't think we can read too deeply into the nightkill target at this point."

Man that meso connective is looking juicier & juicier. Definitely want to keep him around if tenable.

[Frenzy]

I know right?

We also don't wanna kill Ori tonight, if they don't get lynched. That would be setting me up for lynch real hard.

I'm thinking tonight we off either Shalmoa, since we have a decent read that they're both in a cult an not an envoy, or one of the less active users like QT or Comi.

Not Scia though, I think she might manage it all on her own.

[HailMarek]

I dunno, we could try and kill Ori for Refuge in Audacity - "surely they wouldn't be so brazen as to just keep killing everyone who suspects them."

But yeah, not hugely tempted to take that risk at the moment.

[Frenzy]

Not worth it imo.

[HailMarek]

For context: I don't 100% have a firm plan right now beyond "this is a gambit I'd play under normal circumstances" but the basic idea is that the Cult of Marek is already behind from losing Nictis & can ill afford another such loss, so putting together a compelling YP push will back them into enough of a corner to potentially force revealing behaviors.

[Frenzy]

Sounds good. I poked Lirua earlier to see if they seemed in favor of pressuring YP, but they didn't seem interested, so probably no support from that quarter.

[HailMarek]

Eh, or just covering for their thread identities if they intend to push but don't expect to need coordination.

[HailMarek]

Cyri is making a mistake here that I don't intend to correct as my strategy right now is "stay quiet & let the push roll on to avoid giving the game away," but since we don't actually need this push feel free to correct either if you want cred or wanna push Cyri over it. No need to do either though.

[Frenzy]

Cyri is making a mistake here that I don't intend to correct as my strategy right now is "stay quiet & let the push roll on to avoid giving the game away," but since we don't actually need this push feel free to correct either if you want cred or wanna push Cyri over it. No need to do either though.

what mistake is that, 'xactly?

[HailMarek]

The thing YP has since pointed out, that they never claimed to be Uninitiated.

[HailMarek]

Do whatever you think works best in this scenario, I don't need any specific response but verisimilitude demands I seek a reaction from you.

[Frenzy]

OOC, I think we definitely want the YP lynch through today.

A) it determines if YP is an envoy as suspected. If they aren't, that's one kill closer to win for us, if they are, that draws heat from the other two cults away from us.
B) it'll allow me to drag out this Ori thing into tomorrow, extending the time before suspicions start to close in on me.

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