Re: The Aetherialists - Discussion Thread

[HailMarek]

I'm thinking I'll specifically offer meso up as the one to be voted out - he's confirmed as an Envoy so he can't be cover for you and one of the other cults will really want him dead.

[Frenzy]

I'm thinking of a draft for the message, I wanna make our last hurrah fancy.

My thoughts for terms:
"We, the aetherialists, will not target the cult of hades tonight. In exchange, we ask that the cult of hades recruit the one called Sculptor, and vote to lynch the lesser envoy ComiTurtle this following day."

Meanwhile, I'll spend my double shot to off QT, who is definitely an envoy and I have even odds on being the Marek grande.

Then once Comi, aka Sculptor, aka I really fucking hope I'm right that they're the dumbass envoy and not Scia, I can potentially bargain with Lirua during the day to set up pitting the cults against each-other.

I honestly don't think I'll be able to pull off a win, here, but if I go down I'm taking as many cults as I can with me.

[HailMarek]

Oh, also, Ori has stated in HadesChat that his Aetherialist read on you is just a soul read that has no relation to the logic he's pushing it under. Shalmoa's got a relatively neutral stance on you, trusts Comi, & has no idea on Scia's status. Of course grain of salt on all this as it's in a chat they know is shared with a suspected Aetherialist who may be your partner.

[Frenzy]

If my thoughts are right, and Meso is Ascending Servitor and not Rhapsody, and Comi is the envoy rather than Scia, then that will take out Marek entirely as a competitor and put the other two on even terms. I can exploit that.

[HailMarek]

Okay, to be clear, I'm the one issuing the statement & you're trying to stay in something resembling cover yes?

Also I don't want to bargain for future actions if it can at all be avoided, because if we're both dead then we can't follow through on our threats. So we need to force action today. We can lean on precommitment meta if we absolutely have to but I don't really trust most of the folks here on that. Like, QT specifically I'd be relatively comfortable relying on for that, & that's about it.

[Frenzy]

The thing is I don't think we can leverage them into action today, especially not with threats when they're already playing dead cult walking. What we need to do is offer them a chance to expand their fringe chance at victory into something more tangible.

And I don't think we can do that within the current day.

[HailMarek]

So for clarity, my proposed statement is roughly:

"Okay, fine, the jig is up. I'm an Aetherialist. An Aetherialist who hasn't used their double kill yet. So, Cult of Hades, an ultimatum: vote for mesonoxian today or be exterminated tonight root and branch.

For whichever Cult does not house mesonoxian, an offer: have at least two of your members vote mesonoxian today and, provided the Cult of Hades does not opt to commit elaborate suicide, I will shoot your choice of the players claiming neither Uninitiated nor Hades. I need to leave my partner some cover, after all, and if Hades does fulfill their part of the deal then I can hardly murder them for it. But this still leaves you with a free chance to hit an enemy Envoy, which I imagine should be rather valuable for you. So.

[X] Vote mesonoxian

Have we got a deal?"

[HailMarek]

We leverage them into action today insofar as some slim chance of survival is still better than 100% guaranteed annihilation.

[Frenzy]

Speaking as someone currently running on the same "nothing to lose" stance they will be, that is almost guaranteed not to work. And, frankly, even if you sway them today, it won't be enough to save you, unless I can convince Lirua, which I'll tell you is a lost cause given Comi is in Lirua chat.

[HailMarek]

Do we know for a fact that meso is Marek's Envoy and not the mystery Lirua Envoy?

Also not seeing why Comi being in LiruaChat makes Lirua intrinsically unlikely to take my offer.

Also also I think Hades is arguably obligated to take my offer by the rules of the game ("always be trying to win"), because objectively they have no chance to win if they reject the offer and do have a chance to win if they take it.

[Frenzy]

Do we know for a fact that meso is Marek's Envoy and not the mystery Lirua Envoy?

No, I actually believe they are the mystery envoy and QT is the Marek GE, but that slot may be reversed. similarly, Meso could be whichever of the Lirua envoys Nemo isn't, and I'm genuinely unsure which that is.

Regardless, I don't think Meso specifically is as much threat as Marek as a whole. Unless Meso is Rhapsody, they have both their vests, and we have only one double. I don't think I can stretch this long enough to whittle them away if we don't get rid of them ASAP.

if we go for the way you're advocating, I think it needs to be Comi.

Also also I think Hades is arguably obligated to take my offer by the rules of the game ("always be trying to win"), because objectively they have no chance to win if they reject the offer and do have a chance to win if they take it.

I mean, that's an interpretation, but how confident that they share it are you?

[Frenzy]

Also not seeing why Comi being in LiruaChat makes Lirua intrinsically unlikely to take my offer.

Also I wrote that before I realized you were advocating dropping the ultimatum on SV and not cult chat.

[HailMarek]

The issue with killing Comi is that he's claimed Uninitiated and I need to keep the target outside the Uninitiated claims to avoid having them just go "okay what about LDJ?" The excuse needs to be that I'm not killing any of the Uninitiated claims.

[Frenzy]

If Comi lasts into Tomorrow, I don't think I will. And I need to spend at least one kill on QT before they become vulnerable. Lirua won't vote to off one of theirs, and I don't want to strengthen Marek's position either.

[Frenzy]

Also like, 70% sure Comi is an Envoy, and thus lying blatantly. Mention that maybe?

[Frenzy]

IDK man I'm kinda falling apart at the seams here.

[HailMarek]

Why are we specifically most scared of Comi right now? And what makes you so sure he's an Envoy?

[Frenzy]

Completely unrelated, if you do end up doing the thing, be sure to sign your post:

Neque deos, neque regum, tantum homines.

[HailMarek]

...like, okay, can you outline for me all your current theories on who you think is what roles? I feel like I'm somewhat behind here.

[HailMarek]

Completely unrelated, if you do end up doing the thing, be sure to sign your post:

Neque deos, neque regum, tantum homines.

I dunno, I was thinking just the classic "no gods no masters."

[HailMarek]

Anyway my view of the current situation is as such:

Shalmoa - Hades Grand Envoy
Ori - Hades Follower, unlikely to be a secret Lesser Envoy IMO
Comi - supposedly started Uninitiated & is IMO relatively unlikely to be defecting on his own damn plan, so a non-Hades Follower
meso - unidentified non-Hades Envoy
QT - gut says Envoy, agree with you there, but no idea which other than obvs not Hades
Nemo - Lirua Envoy of one sort or another
Scia - lying non-Hades Envoy by process of elimination

Our ideal elimination today is the Marek Lesser Envoy in specific, or the Marek Grand Envoy if and only if that's meso. From the information currently available to me meso is therefore the likeliest candidate to be a correct elimination, as he's vulnerable whether Grand or Lesser and I have no evidence linking him to Lirua. If you have other reads please explain them.

[Frenzy]

Why are we specifically most scared of Comi right now? And what makes you so sure he's an Envoy?

Because everyone is following Comi's lead and I have absolutely no way to fight that.

As for why I think they're an Envoy, math narrows down who it could be to Abdul Hazared or Sculptor. I have those people pegged for Scia and Comi, respectively. My gut insists strongly that Scia/Abdul was not acting like an Envoy would. It's still a possibility Scia is the real Envoy, but my gut feels that's wrong, and at this point I'm inclined to trust my gutfeel.

[Frenzy]

I dunno, I was thinking just the classic "no gods no masters."

What do you think that is? I just put it in Latin.

[Frenzy]

*Sighs*

All my energy is gone at this point, so... Do what you think is best, I guess.

I'm gonna go do something else to try and take my mind off things before I go to sleep.

[HailMarek]

Why are we specifically most scared of Comi right now? And what makes you so sure he's an Envoy?

Because everyone is following Comi's lead and I have absolutely no way to fight that.

As for why I think they're an Envoy, math narrows down who it could be to Abdul Hazared or Sculptor. I have those people pegged for Scia and Comi, respectively. My gut insists strongly that Scia/Abdul was not acting like an Envoy would. It's still a possibility Scia is the real Envoy, but my gut feels that's wrong, and at this point I'm inclined to trust my gutfeel.

I mean, I kinda get that but at the same time it's gambling a lot on Comi being the Lesser Marek Envoy and on the rest of Lirua believing that. Otherwise there's two Cults that won't want him dead, which means our plan would be dead in the water. I think you're gonna just have to fight Comi in the day phase and do your best. Sorry.

Like, I'm just seeing no world in which we can get Hades+1 to agree to off him.

I dunno, I was thinking just the classic "no gods no masters."

What do you think that is? I just put it in Latin.

Your version is "no gods, no kings, only men" which is a variant that AFAICT originates with Bioshock.

Anyway. Can you explain to me why you think meso is Lirua Lesser rather than a Marek Envoy? Is it just process of elimination from your reads on Comi as Marek Lesser and QT as Marek Grand?

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