Re: The Aetherialists - Discussion Thread

[HailMarek]

Interesting. That means we know at least one of Gary,Fred & Nobody has to be a Lirua Envoy of one sort or another, right? Not immediately useful to us but good to keep in mind, especially if we get more insight into either of their identities later.

[HailMarek]

Suggestion: if you can't defend your vote on Nictis as not opportunistic, might be worth trying to argue something along the lines of "okay yeah it was but so what" - the unconventional nature of the game means that's not necessarily a sign of any affiliation on your end other than "not Nictis's team."

Could also try & throw "I know Shalmoa to be an Envoy, kill them instead" if absolutely all else fails, pretending to be a Follower looking to flip on their Cult for survival, 'cause between my suspicions & your info from the Lirua chat there's at least a decent chance of that being true IMO. Definitely last-ditch though as it likely gets you shot or something.

[HailMarek]

Worth considering: YP has claimed a cult so they're probably a better "just so we don't no-lynch" target than meso is right now, since 2/3rds of the game or so know they want YP dead. & honestly I wanna keep meso around if possible, his beef with Nictis is useful & might lower how much attention you individually draw if we murder Nictis tonight.

[HailMarek]

OTOH it might be awkward to pivot to that now unless you can sell it well.

[HailMarek]

Okay so just advance warning, I am 100% gonna have to take you to task on D3 for swapping to a new wagon - thereby weakening the one on meso - in response to someone making a vote that was bad specifically due to being off-wagon.

[Frenzy]

I'd expect nothing less.

It was basically a symbolic gesture, tbh, because I could tell we weren't getting another 3-4 votes in the next 60 seconds.

[Frenzy]

Now then, who we killing?

[HailMarek]

It's tricky. I kinda feel like we need Nictis gone 'cause I don't think he's gonna leave you be, but on the other hand that'll paint a target on your back for that very reason. You'd have to argue framing & hope to wine it away, which is dicey in a game this devoid of meaningful info, 'cause one way or another our kill is gonna be the big public news of the day. I guess in significant part it comes down to a question of "are you more confident in fending off Nictis or fending off the attention you'd get when we kill Nictis?" Either way you're gonna be stuck on defense for at least some of D3 I expect, especially with NemoMarx seeming to buy into Nictis's arguments.

How's LiruaChat taking today's events, anyway? Anything going on in there other than folks announcing their presence? Wouldn't mind a paraphrased summary of events so far if you can get one together. Also definitely a good idea to log all the contents somehow as of Night End, since you might get grabbed by a different Cult & lose access.

[Frenzy]

I'm feeling like we might want to leave Nictis be this night, because I'm not confident a framing argument would be enough to get me through the following day.

As for the Lirua group, they haven't really said much in total, and they haven't posted since day end at all.

[Frenzy]

Gary,Fred did they they didn't think there was any worry right now about 2.5 hours before day end, so I doubt the Liruas were up on the vote board.

[HailMarek]

I'm feeling like we might want to leave Nictis be this night, because I'm not confident a framing argument would be enough to get me through the following day.

Okay, well if we want to get you off Nictis's radar then ideally I'd like to go for a kill that frames someone else - that way there'll at least be something guaranteed to be available as a distraction. Issue is that I can't really see any other kills that set up a good frame, but let me know if you find one. Entirely on "how scared am I of this individual," I think there's some value to hitting QT, Comi, or Ori; I'm inclined to leave Shalmoa off that list for now due to my theory that they're Nobody & therefore have above-average odds of Envoy status, and while Cyri can be spooky I categorically refuse to send our first kill of the game his way. I also do think, on a related note, that we should consider "kill Nictis anyway" b/c in addition to the framing issue there's the simple fact that Nictis is liable to be a major threat for any given Aetherialist team. Like, in a vacuum, "Nictis ate the first NK" is not something I'd be surprised to see occur in a no-Doc game.

[HailMarek]

Also, just went to check & noticed that we're two of the thread's top 4 posters, which isn't intrinsically an issue but does mean we should be very careful not to take out too many of our neighbors on that list. If it looks like the Aetherialists are shooting active players then us surviving alone among their number is gonna be sketchy.

[Frenzy]

True.

Also why refuse to kill Cyri?

[HailMarek]

Cyri has had an unfortunate habit of dying really early lately. My statement was hyperbole; I'd be willing to kill him if we had a strong specific reason to do so but I'm inclined to let him live tonight if it's just a threat assessment question.

[Frenzy]

Fair.

I'm thinking... Nictis, for the reasons you posted, or QT, because they're one of the least prolific posters thus far, which doesn't give anyone much info.

[HailMarek]

I don't think "doesn't give anyone much info" is where we wanna be on tonight's NK, since that gives you zero cover against Nictis. Have you got a plan for surviving that kind of direct attention?

[Frenzy]

Nope. I'm not sure who we could kill that would actually put me in a good position to ward off the Nictis suspicions.

[HailMarek]

Then I think we likely just have to murder Nictis and make it work. Potential framejob + could also be about meso + just a sensible target in general, hope that's a good enough defense.

And if Nictis turns out to be an Envoy then I guess we try our best to get everyone hunting for who ate the shot instead of who fired it.

[HailMarek]

You mind being the one to submit the kill? I think I'll likely be busy at Day start & we might as well wait 'til relatively close to the end of the Night in case any salient discussion pops up in LiruaChat. If you'll be busy too I can submit it before I have to go though.

[Frenzy]

Can do

[HailMarek]

Please confirm in here once you've submitted it, just to be sure.

[Frenzy]

I need to include you in the PM where I submit anyway, so...

Anyway, was planning to do it on the hour (so about 15 minutes from now).

[Frenzy]

Kill submitted.

[Frenzy]

Sculptor joined Lirua.

they brought info from Hades chat:
Witch Stan, Vili, and Mostly Suspicious were the three other members.

MS stopped talking once Sculptor joined, which implies the other three were the originals of Hades. It was also apparently implied that MS doesn't need protecting, so I think they might be one to peg for Grande.

[HailMarek]

Okay, so assuming all claims thus far are true (which we definitely shouldn't rely on - Sculptor in particular could well have strong incentives to be less than entirely honest), it looks like the info we have is this:

ascendingServitor - possibly NemoMarx
Abdul Hazared - no information
Two Bananas in a Boat - confirmed Nictis, recruited to Cult of Marek N0 or N1 or maybe N2 (don't know if recruitment attempts still go off when someone gets killed)
Witch_Stan_365 - recruited to Cult of Hades N0 & not successfully recruited elsewhere N1
Frenzy - you, recruited to Cult of Lirua N1
Vili - recruited to Cult of Hades N0 & not successfully recruited elsewhere N1
Rhapsody - no information
Candi Trios - no information
Anonymoose - confirmed JBJ, Uninitiated
Nobody - recruited to Cult of Lirua N0 & not successfully recruited elsewhere N1, possibly Shalmoa
Gary,Fred - recruited to Cult of Lirua N0 & not successfully recruited elsewhere N1, probably not meso due to not feeling threatened near EoD2
Mostly Suspicious - claimed YoungPyromancer, recruited to Cult of Hades N0 & then Cult of Marek N1 (which means not a Grand Envoy as those can't be recruited), "didn't need protecting" according to HadesChat
Sculptor - recruited to Cult of Hades N1 & then Cult of Lirua N2
Terra Aya - no information
HailMarek - me, still not fucking recruited yet somehow

Does that all look right to you?

Also: have either of Nobody or Gary,Fred spoken up in LiruaChat since day start?

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