Re: The Aetherialists - Discussion Thread

[Frenzy]

Eh, fair.

In that case, which of the three are you feeling most strongly?

[HailMarek]

Like I said Cyri scares me most. If we kill Comi I bet somebody will call for actually doing the uninitiated claim thing on grounds of CassandraTurtle so that doesn't help much. We should review Cyri's positions to make sure they don't implicate us too much though. Also down to trust your gut & hit QT if you'd rather. TBH I'd put decent odds on QT being an Envoy based on what you've said & my own gut but I seriously don't have an actual argument for it so IDK how much weight to put there.

[Frenzy]

Hm... My gut says QT, head says Cyri, imma flip a coin.
Heads Cyri... Heads. Cyri it is.

[HailMarek]

Okay, let's go ahead & send in Cyri for now, if things go wrong in HadesChat (mostly, if Ori persuades Shal to shoot me instead somehow) I may pull the trigger on switching to killing Ori & going for the blackmail - will try to consult first but timing may be sensitive. Will only use if I'm in mortal danger.

You wanna send the kill in or shall I?

[Frenzy]

Sent.

[HailMarek]

Yeah, okay, reviewed & TBH I think Cyri's death will more implicate Ori or Shal if anyone. Should be fine for us.

[Frenzy]

Be sure to enquire how results went, if Shal didn't share already.

[Frenzy]

The push to claim starting uninit is a bit of an issue, because is has enough support pushing against it would be suspicious, but it kinda traps us.

I think, if forced to do it, claim I was aligned at the start of the game.

[HailMarek]

Shal results: Rhapsody is a Grand Envoy so recruitment failed; meso survived being shot and so is an Envoy of some kind.

Regarding uninitiated claims, haven't caught up in thread yet but IMO the obvious issue with such claims is the risk of defections - if the Uninitiated are to be treated as a target pool then even non-Aetherialists may want to keep themselves out of it to avoid having their cult weakened, while conversely Envoys may want to hide among it to avoid being pinned down. Given that literally everyone except N0 Followers has incentive to lie, it seems like a dubious plan.

Will see if these arguments still hold once I've read through the thread though. Internet being very spotty so I have to do all this on phone.

[Frenzy]

...I think Sculptor might be Comi? It just hit me out of nowhere that among the remaining players, the only one with bother the time and *inclination* to hard hard on RP-ing in chat the way Sculptor does is Comi. Maaaaybe Meso, but that's a distant second. Can't be Ori, Nemo, Shal or either of us, and Sculptor is too verbose for QT or Scia, that only really leaves two possibilities.

Idk if this is *helpful* anyway, but I feel pleased with figuring it out.

[HailMarek]

Hm. Fuck, this is getting complicated. I'm inclined to just lay low until I get my internet connection back and can go over things more properly. Ping me in here if you need me active.

[HailMarek]

Okay, proposal for a post against the mass claim thing, lemme know if you think I should go for it or edit it or hold off entirely:

@ComiTurtle I do have a concern about your uninitiated-claim plan, regarding defection risks. Specifically, if the plan's gonna work at all then we'll need counterclaims on anyone who lies about it, but then whichever Cult currently can most afford losses could have a Follower fake-claim starting in a different cult to force out said counterclaim. At which point one of the claimants dies, neither of which are Aetherialists, but the fake-claiming cult benefits their own position on average because as previously noted they can better afford losses.



So basically it seems to me like the plan relies on all the Cults wanting to kill Aetherialists more than they want to get a leg up on each other, which...polite fictions for the public thread aside I'm not actually sure how true that is.

[Frenzy]

Seems fine

[Frenzy]

Don't forget to address Shal's push against you tho.

[Frenzy]

Fuck, should have seen that coming.

[Frenzy]

I may have to bus you, friend.

This is kind of a disaster...

[Frenzy]

Assuming nobody else lies (big assumption I know), if you claim initiated d1 then the numbers should line up exactly how they would if everyone were truthful, assuming my read here is right.

[HailMarek]

I think actually my best move here is claiming "honestly" - HailMarek, previously uninitiated, recruited to Hades. That explains all the things folks have taken issue with - I'm focused on self-pres because Hades is a dead cult walking & I need to get out before I die, and the Shal thing was 'cause I figured out they were my Grand Envoy.

It may not work perfectly, & feel free to bus me if you have to, but I think it's my best out here. Especially as with this much heat on me, if I claim initially Initiated then I'm gonna be forced to stake a claim to an off-site identity other than my own, which ends with me losing the head-to-head when they counterclaim.

[HailMarek]

BTW I'm firing this off in ~30 minutes if I don't hear from you one way or the other before then - too much silence will be suspicious.

[Frenzy]

Fair point. Go ahead if you think it'll work.

[HailMarek]

I don't know that it'll work but it's the best I've got at this stage. Going for it. Again, do not hesitate to bus me to death if you have to.

[Frenzy]

Btw if it reaches the end of day and it looks like you're unavoidably gonna be lynched, we might want to consider offering Hades last minute terms. Something along the lines of "my teammate will leave your Cult alive if you agree to vote So-and-so tomorrow".

[Frenzy]

I'm really frustrated right now, because I'm not sure there's a way for us to pull out a win anymore.
Things were going so *well* too...

[HailMarek]

Sorry I haven't been present today, had a bunch of stuff going on, catching up now. Regarding your suggestion of offering terms we do have the ability to blackmail Hades with "if you don't do what I say your cult fucking dies" (subject to Ori not being an Envoy obvs) but that only buys us two votes today, and only one tomorrow (since Ori can just get recruited out tonight), neither of which seems likely to be enough to do anything. Would need to somehow combine it with buying other votes. Considering going with "if Hades doesn't vote X today, we will murder them; if someone else does vote X today we will murder a target of their choice tonight." If Lirua or Marek is willing to have two members openly working with the Aetherialists then that buys us 4 votes plus me to make up a majority.

[HailMarek]

And...yeah, okay, caught up, I think that bargain is the only one available to me at this stage. Sentiment is strongly against me & I don't think I have any especially good outs from it. Will await your approval for the gambit though, especially if you can see any ways to improve it.

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