Re: Followers of Hades - Discussion Thread

[Mostly Suspicious]

The Hades gamestate is really bad, but I honestly think LDJ's underestimating things here. We might be almost completely in the open, but that makes things just a little more dangerous than any of the cults would like. Sorry Terra, I'm trying to make you too valuable to steal. Sorry Wiadi, but I think too many people think you're an Aetherialist to steal at this point. I mean, you might actually be, but I'm wondering if I should try to snipe an Aetherialist to recruit tonight. It is important that they at least eventually get the info regarding mesonoxian, after all. Regarding actually shooting me, well, that's the part I have no control over.

Well, we'll toss the dice and see what happens. Marek can't actually be that far ahead, given that we have 3 people and I will not be recruiting a Grand Envoy tonight.

[Terra Aya]

It's all good I'm honestly just trying to have fun with it at this point if I win I win but I'm not going to be super upset about it.

If LDJ is aetherialist tho I'm going t be so fucking smug though.

[Terra Aya]

People are going to underestimate us which is actually value positive.

[Mostly Suspicious]

Well, you definitely get to be smug on that soul read, nice shot Ori.

LDJ seems to know that the Grand Envoy of Lirua has been shot. That's almost certainly mesonoxian. I'm not going to be recruiting a Grand Envoy tonight, so be aware that there will be someone here tomorrow who can read this stuff even if all non-Aetherialists here were to mysteriously die.

That is also quite suspicious, to be clear. I don't think meso leaks that info in public chat like that.

[HailMarek]

Sorry Wiadi, but I think too many people think you're an Aetherialist to steal at this point.

...yeah, that's probably true, isn't it. Damn. In which case I'm in here for the long haul after all and might as well start actually cooperating. So, assuming LDJ is in fact an Aetherialist what does our actual path to victory look like from there? I think you're right that an Aetherialist is our best recruitment target 'cause other than that all we're getting is Lesser Envoys. Either way we ultimately need them dead & unless Ori's been playing me like a fiddle I think we have both remaining actual Followers in here already.

[Terra Aya]

Honestly if I'm an Aetherialist at this point im a god gamer.

[Terra Aya]

(TO BE CLEAR, I AM NOT A GOD GAMER NO MATTER HOW MUCH I LOVE MY EGO BEING FED BY BEING RIGHT)

[HailMarek]

I mean you could also be the lying Envoy TBF.

[Terra Aya]

Anyways I got that outta my system so I'm going to tune out till much later in the night so I can deflate my ego and actually regain a sense of objectivity.

[Terra Aya]

Yeah the possibility is there sure but Wiadi - consider - when do I ever lie?

[Mostly Suspicious]

The Grand Envoy of Marek is the biggest problem, so we do need an Aetherialist to solve that. So, that's pretty much up to luck, assuming they even decide to cooperate. Once the vests are gone, then it becomes possible, but I don't really know how it adds up. This is the part I really wish I had a living Lesser Envoy for, we're just going to get outpaced on recruitments otherwise.

On the off chance you are an Aetherialist, Wiadi, which would be fine, then I've got no reason to kill you until the cults are closer to parity. There's no evidence that you guys have spent your double kill, so I'd recommend holding off on it for now, because that's the biggest chance you'll have of winning.

If I die in a suspect fashion, well, we just have to figure out who the actual last Aetherialist is before then.

For sure not:
mesonoxian
Shalmoa

Probably not:
OriginalName
ComiTurtle
QTesseract
NemoMarx

Maybe:
Scia
Wiadi

Of these, the one that strikes me as most suspicious (besides you, Wiadi), is Scia. She's Abdul Hazared, and an unlikely recruitment target for the other cults. Pretty safe overall, I think. Possible target for Marek's bullet, if they put this much thought into making it happen. mesonoxian appears to be the Grand Envoy of Lirua and not aligned with QTesseract or ComiTurtle. NemoMarx claims to not be an Envoy, but like, Nemo pretty much has to be an Envoy, right?

We pretty much need to have a solve by SoD6, I think, because the Aetherialists need a solve too if they're going to try and figure out some way to win this game themselves. Hades's best chance is acquiring enough momentum to survive the Aetherialist double kill. Optimal time for betrayal should depend on wine around the double kill, I think. If the Aetherialists wait to shoot the Grand Envoy of Marek, they also certainly lose, I think. So we grab Scia, who is the most likely person to also be an Aetherialist, and then we try to close ranks as much as possible. I think.

Ninja edit: Ori can't be the lying Envoy. Ori was a potential original recruit here. Ori might be a god-gamer Aetherialist, it has crossed my mind.

[Terra Aya]

I don't think I continually piss off my partner in thread that much if I am but yes it is strictly speaking possible.

Comi is my conspiracy theory pick, Wiadi is my gut pick, Scia is the Occams razor pick.

QT im leaning an envoy of some kind, Nemo is even more strongly feeling like an envoy of some kind.

I think the major question right now is does Comi hard bus LDJ in that position.

[Terra Aya]

SoD3 makes me look really good as far as not being an Aetherialist imho.

[Mostly Suspicious]

What do we think the Envoy pairings are? meso/Nemo and QT/Comi, or Nemo/Comi and meso/QT? QT's info agrees with my own Envoy info, so I put him as a fairly strong Envoy read. He claimed Abdul Hazared was in his starting pool, and that's a very unsafe claim for anyone to make because either Envoy can just drop a note in their follower chat "We had this person in our starting pool, there is something extremely fishy going on here." That didn't happen, so I'm very much willing to trust it. LDJ provided the QT/Comi pairing, I think I trust it tbh. I don't see why LDJ would lie on that read in that scenario.

Wiadi's my "there's only one feasible way LDJ knows one of the things he claims to know" read, and Scia's my "if it's not Wiadi it basically has to be Scia" read, so we can just prepare posts knowing that either way, an Aetherialist will almost certainly be in here by SoD6.

The idea of Comi bussing LDJ here makes a bit of sense, but meso/Nemo didn't seem to go for it, and QT didn't seem to go for it in thread. I don't think that's actually what happened in my gut. Wiadi's push back against Comi's plan initially also makes me question it, and that's the point we'll have to somehow argue around if that's what's going to go on. The truth is that the Aetherialists also have an insanely narrow margin at this point, and I think we have to actively conspire to help them for either of us to have a serious chance.

I don't doubt that others can narrow this down to "Scia or Wiadi" either, but for us to reasonably bus someone in Hades we need confirmation from an Aetherialist that Marek's Grand Envoy has actually been shot, and even then we're at a significant disadvantage. Hades needs a serious chance of winning to make that play to protect an Aetherialist, because otherwise neither of you should be willing to pick up the Hades win condition permanently by death.

I can't bus myself for this either, there's way too much wine around a Grand Envoy trying to reveal himself as an Aetherialist, it'd give away the play instantly. So it'd pretty much have to be Terra Aya, but we'll have to argue against that SoD3 stuff in that scenario. We may have to make you out to be an actual god gamer yet, Ori. But only if Hades ends up having a credible chance of winning.

[Terra Aya]

Propping up the Aetherialists is a loss state imo, but I think it heavily depends on how the board looks tommorrow.

[HailMarek]

Propping up the Aetherialists is a loss state imo, but I think it heavily depends on how the board looks tommorrow.

I feel like we need to be willing to work with the Aetherialists at least provisionally, since they're the only ones in a desperate enough position to work with us. Like, if we're not doing that then we should arguably just not recruit tonight at all & Shal should re-recruit whichever of us is more likely to get grabbed (it's you), 'cause anyone we could recruit would be just detrimental to our ability to safely coordinate. I don't think we're likely to be able to collaborate with any Lesser Envoys at this stage.

[HailMarek]

mesonoxian appears to be the Grand Envoy of Lirua

Also Shal how did you figure this out in specific? I think I might've missed something.

[Mostly Suspicious]

mesonoxian appears to be the Grand Envoy of Lirua

Also Shal how did you figure this out in specific? I think I might've missed something.

LDJ implied at the EoD there that Lirua doesn't have a Grand Envoy's vest, and the only conclusion I can come to there is that either the Aetherialists shot the actual grand envoy (in which case, it being mesonoxian isn't super relevant) or you leaked it to LDJ and LDJ knew it was meso.

It's largely guesswork, but I think it tracks with how meso was acting through the game. Probably worth review, but I'd bet on it.

[HailMarek]

I dunno, if you're talking about his pronouncements of doom for everyone except Marek, it seems to me like LDJ may have just been saying stuff to try & not die. Like, we can take his statements into account, but there's a pretty clear motive to argue "if you vote me you're fucked" whether or not it'd be true.

[Mostly Suspicious]

I think today's Day Elimination probably has to be ComiTurtle. I don't think he's actually an Aetherialist, but:

If I'm alive, we pretty much need to start eliminating Envoy pairs so that Hades doesn't just get recruited to death. If I'm dead, anyone who's still here will need an extra night to be recruited out of Hades, and you may or may not be interested in trying to swing the Aetherialist kill towards meso (assuming Aeth!Wiadi doesn't just snipe meso tonight, which wouldn't be such a bad thing, since then there's a chance we could actually completely control tomorrow's vote if everything goes perfectly). This really depends on how many people we do or don't bleed off tonight to the other two recruit actions. Every other potential Aetherialist is going to have a decent chance of being in Hades tomorrow too.

Even if we don't hold a majority, we can probably get whichever cult is weakest at the moment to work with us to swing the vote at either Comi or meso. We'll probably hold enough of the voting block to largely force the kill to be one of those two. I think Comi's on the bigger team though, so I'd rather hit him.

[Mostly Suspicious]

If I'm alive after Day start I'll post the update on the cult size, but otherwise you may wish to consider sounding off. Hades will have anywhere from 1 to 3 people in it if I die, and in the larger cases that's still a sizeable voting block. I haven't really drawn out those lines (since if I die tonight I'm pretty sure Hades is doomed), but you're all either legitimate followers or the last Aetherialist.

Also if Marek kills me, please kill an Envoy with the day vote. Comi and meso are safe, Nemo and QT are potentially immune, but I'm pretty sure meso and QT are the other Grand Envoys. Soul read on one of them, but Comi's almost certainly a Lesser Envoy and meso was shot. Again, you guys need the extra time with the Aetherialists active to get sorted into one of the other cults, I think.

[HailMarek]

Well fuck. Looks like we're just gonna have to hope to get recruited out before the game ends. Or I will, at least - don't know who all is still here. Sound off? Should be in our interests to work together at least for today.

[HailMarek]

Personally I think Nemo's right that it's mostly a Lirua vs. Marek situation at this stage, meaning as per Shalmoa's suggestion we want to take Comi out today, to weaken Marek down closer to parity with Lirua (since we need the game to not end until we're recruited & we don't know which side we'll end up on). Assuming the assessment of Comi as the Marek Lesser Envoy is correct, at least. Worth considering that if he & QT are in fact the Marek Envoys, they could be funneling info to impersonate one another over here, meaning Sculptor might actually be QT and Comi would be the Grand Envoy. Thoughts (from any of you who exist)?

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